October 2026 newsletter – “The Price of Money”

119% of GDP. €135bn more in six months. French borrowing costs closing in on 5%.

On 23 October, Moody’s kept France at Aa3, when many had expected a downgrade. The former star pupil holds on to its rating, but is crossing new thresholds.

After all, we have grown used to figures so huge they end up feeling abstract, and to warnings repeated so often they have become a refrain no one listens to anymore.

What’s different? The context. This year, everything is piling up: an energy crisis against a backdrop of geopolitical tension, inflation in the euro area and political uncertainty. France looks poorly equipped to win over the financial markets, with record debt, record volumes to borrow and a strained budget on the eve of the presidential election.

The consequence is simple and concrete: borrowing is going to cost more. For everyone.

For bond investors (French government bonds, or OATs), this is good news: lending to the French State now yields close to 5%. Less so for those who already hold them, as their value will fall as rates rise.

For households, a 20-year mortgage is going for around 3.5% in early October, up from 3.3% at the start of the year. For the same monthly payment, you can borrow roughly 2% less.

For businesses, new bank loans cost 3.66% on average in August, the latest figure available, up from 3.39% a year earlier. For an SME looking to invest, hire or grow, finding other sources of funding is becoming a real concern.

With money now more expensive, everyone will have to make an effort or, at the very least, adapt. The State, by putting its finances back in order. Investors, by choosing carefully where to put their money. SMEs, by diversifying their sources of funding.

At Lise, we bring together SMEs that open their capital on the stock market and investors who choose which companies to back.
Our way of contributing to this collective effort.

This month in numbers

€340bn to be raised by the French State in 2027, a record, up from €310bn in 2026

Up from €310bn in 2026. Most of the increase comes from bonds reaching maturity: to repay them, the State has to borrow again.

AGENCE FRANCE TRÉSOR · 29/09/2026

3.8% euro area inflation in September 2026, driven by energy, up from 2.2% a year earlier

Up from 2.2% a year earlier. Almost all of the increase comes from energy, where prices have risen by nearly 19% in a year.

EUROSTAT · 16/10/2026

$365tn of global debt in the first half of 2026, roughly three times global GDP

Governments, businesses and households combined, roughly three times the planet’s GDP. More than $10tn added in six months.

INSTITUT DE LA FINANCE INTERNATIONALE (IIF) · 2026

Research, signals and things to watch

IPOs: more of them in Europe, bigger ones in the US

In the third quarter, European exchanges welcomed 45 new companies, compared with 24 a year earlier, but raised less money: $2.9bn, versus $3.7bn. The US took the opposite path: 24 IPOs, against 65 a year earlier, but $35bn raised, versus $15.8bn.

Put simply: Europe and the US are on two different paths. One lists more companies for smaller amounts; the other focuses on a handful of very large deals. Two strategies, two views of what a stock market is for.

Source: EY, Global IPO Trends, 1 October 2026

Small businesses: fewer bank loans, projects on hold

Among small businesses and SMEs that invest, 70% use a bank loan, the lowest level since 2018. And 59% of business owners with a project in the pipeline are considering postponing or cancelling it.

Put simply: faced with political uncertainty, business leaders are scaling back.

Source: Bpifrance Le Lab and Rexecode, SME Barometer (Baromètre TPE-PME), 17 September 2026

Tech brief

$39bn of tokenised real-world assets in early October 2026, excluding stablecoins, up from around $21bn in January

$39bn: the value of tokenised real-world assets (excluding dollar- and euro-backed stablecoins) in early October, up from around $21bn in January.

US Treasuries, private credit, gold, equities… More and more assets now exist as tokens recorded on a blockchain. And the ECB is following suit: since 21 September, its Pontes initiative has allowed banks to pay for tokenised securities directly in central bank money, and therefore with no risk of payment default.

Tokenised equities nonetheless remain marginal: around $3.3bn, while the 100 largest listed companies alone are worth more than $50tn.

Put simply: tokenisation is growing fast, but from a low base. It still needs to spread to more widely held assets, such as equities, including those of SMEs.

Sources: rwa.xyz, October 2026; ECB, 21 September 2026

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